VIEWPOINTS: Trials facing nation require fast action
October 12, 2009
President Obama was elected with an impressive margin of the popular vote (52.87 percent — John McCain received 45.60 percent) and 67.8 percent of the “electoral” vote — George W. Bush only got 50.4 percent in 2000 and 53 percent in 2004.
Obama also helped the Democrats gain large majorities in the House of Representatives. (2005-2007 it was Democrats 202, Republicans 231. In 2009 it is Democrats 262, Republicans 178.) In the U.S. Senate in 2005-2007 it was Democrats 44 and Republicans 55. In 2009 it is Democrats 61, Republicans 39.
These numbers are important because Obama and the Democrats received a “mandate” from the voters in 2008.
There is a saying in politics that if you want to make big changes you need to begin in the first 100 days of your presidency. After that, the opposing party will have recovered from the shock of an electoral loss and regrouped, and will start taking a toll on you.
When he was sworn in, President Obama inherited the following:
1. A grinding and prohibitively costly war in Iraq that was losing public support.
2. A rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban and Al Qaida were regaining ground and even threatening the security of nuclear-armed Pakistan.
3. A situation in North Korea and Iran, whose leaders were defying the world and developing nuclear weapons and missile systems. This would deeply destabilize the Middle East and Asia and lead to a nuclear arms race in each region.
4. A collapsing U.S. economy that was racing from mild recession to deep recession in the last six months of the Bush administration, to the possibility of a second Great Depression.
5. A U.S. auto industry that was close to bankruptcy. The headline in FinancialPost.com read “Auto industry collapse would crush U.S. economy.” It went on to report that if the auto industry collapsed, the U.S. economy would lose 2.95 million direct and indirect jobs in the first year alone. Governments would lose at least $156.4 billion in taxes over the first three years. As a consequence, the United States could spiral down into a depression.
6. The U.S. health care system was also in crisis. “The United States spent approximately $2.2 trillion on health care in 2007 [$7,421 per person] — nearly twice the average of other developed nations. Americans spend more on health care than on housing or food. If rapid health cost growth persists, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2025, one out of every four dollars in our national economy will be tied up in the health system. This growing burden will limit other investments and priorities that are needed to grow our economy. Rising health care costs also affect [American] economic competitiveness in the global economy, as American companies compete against companies in other countries that have dramatically lower health care costs,” (CBO and other sources).
In 1960, the United States spent 5.2 percent of its gross domestic product on health care. By 2004, it was 16 percent. In 2009, it has grown to 17.6 percent and is rising quickly.
7. The total number of people in the United States who die because of lack of medical care is estimated to be more than 100,000 per year. (16.6 percent of Americans are uninsured). So, besides cost, the United States is also faced with tens of millions who are uninsured or under-insured.
8. Then there is an educational system in deep crisis, a world economy teetering on the edge of worldwide economic disaster, climate change caused by both human activity and natural cycles that pose a huge challenge.
So, if you were Obama with a clear voter mandate, would you just take on one of these challenges, three or five? How many?
I think the Obama team felt that this was the only opportunity it would have to move forward the agenda on a whole host of crises facing the United States. No doubt it is a lot, and maybe too much to handle simultaneously. But when you have a large majority and an approval rating of roughly 55 percent, you need to move now.
©2009, Steffen Schmidt, is a Proffessor of Political Science @ Iowa State University. Reprinted with permission from syndication @ http://www.insideriowa.com, Iowa’s Internet Magazine.