Eighty years– that is how long it has been since Iowa State has reached the Final Four. There have been fourteen different head coaches and thousands of different players since then, but something is special about this year’s squad that has the nation buzzing.

Back in 1944, eight teams made it to the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, times have changed. The Cyclones have all but locked up a spot in the pool of 68. All that matters now for them is bolstering their resume to clinch a top-four seed they have been projected at for weeks.

With four regular-season games left, all of which are against unranked opponents, the Cyclones will likely win out or go 3-1 heading into the Big 12 Tournament. If this prediction becomes true, Iowa State should secure a top-three seed in both the conference tournament and March Madness.

But where do the Cyclones go from there?

Optimistically speaking, their ceiling is a Big 12 title and an appearance in the Elite Eight. But if we want to look at a doomsday scenario, I think Iowa State’s season could be done as soon as the semi-finals of the Big 12 Tournament and a loss in the round of 32.

First, let’s start with what would be a historic end to the year for the Cyclones.

If Iowa State claims a top-four seed for the conference tournament, it will have two extra days of rest and will likely be playing a team it has beaten once or, in some situations, twice. That rest will allow them to play with fresh legs and give them momentum moving forward.

Over the last seven years, only two teams seeded outside the top four have made it to the championship game, so it is obvious that the top teams have benefited from the extra rest.

Following what would be the Cyclones’ first Big 12 title since 2019, they could jump up to a two-seed in the big dance with an even easier path to make history. Based on what we have seen from this team, when they string together a slew of wins, it is going to be hard to pick against them in March Madness.

Iowa State’s first two opponents would be mid-major schools looking to start a Cinderella run, a wish I don’t see coming true with how hot the Cyclones would be.

I don’t want to get too far with this scenario with a multitude of moving pieces, but if everything falls into place for Iowa State, I could very well see the team making it to the second weekend of the tournament.

Alright, now let’s think about a situation just as probable for Iowa State.

The aforementioned rest that Iowa State would get as a top-four seed in Kansas City would be just as much of a detriment. The inevitable rust could affect the Cyclones in the quarterfinals, and even if they make it past their first game, there is a good chance that they would play either Baylor or Houston, two teams they have lost to.

We also have to consider how Iowa State would perform at a neutral site. While the team has grown since the ESPN Events Invitational, there’s no telling if their struggles on the road against strong teams in the conference would carry over into the T-Mobile Center.

A top-four seed would still be in reach for Iowa State, and I don’t want to go so far as to say that the team would get bounced in the first round of March Madness, but the second round is believable.

One thing we have to consider when the Cyclones get into the tournament is that they will be playing against teams outside of the Big 12 and will need to get adjusted to a completely different style of play.

They can watch all the film they want heading into the first few rounds, but they will need to adjust on the fly. It is called March ‘Madness’ for a reason. We see top seeds get knocked out early every year, and Iowa State could very well be one of them if the team doesn’t stay consistent.

We still have to see how the final four games of the regular season shake out, but I’m confident there is a clear ceiling for Iowa State’s postseason hopes, which it could easily miss.