Teams to watch
No. 1 North Carolina:
Despite being one of the four teams that NC State upset in the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels have been one of the most consistent teams this season. North Carolina will be making its 53rd NCAA Tournament appearance in program history, entering as one of the most challenging offenses in the nation.
Led by senior standouts RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, whose combined average is over 25 points per game, the Tar Heels host one of the most high-flying offenses that snagged 17 conference wins. North Carolina’s underrated defense makes it an even bigger threat, holding opponents to 93.2 points per 100 possessions, according to Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings (KenPom).
No. 4 Alabama:
A 21-11 record doesn’t exactly scream a top-16 seed in the Big Dance, but Alabama’s ability to consistently put up triple digits on the scoreboard is what got them a four seed. Alabama scored over 100 points nine times this season, averaging almost 90.8 points per game in its 32 contests.
The problem, however, is their defense. While they have shown their ability to win shootouts and run up the score, this is mostly due to the lack of attention and care on the defensive side.
Alabama ended the season allowing an average of 81.1 points per game, allowing its opponents to shoot 44% from the field. Catch them on an off night and they could get upset early, or the Crimson Tide will roll past a team with ease.
A lot of their matchups are going to be toss-ups for me if they make it past the first round.
No. 11 New Mexico:
I feel like the Lobos have attracted a ton of eyes heading into this year’s tournament and for a good reason. They picked up four straight wins in the Mountain West Conference Tournament to secure their first appearance in the Big Dance since 2014 and the 16th in program history.
New Mexico enters their matchup with Clemson with the eighth fastest tempo, according to KenPom, with 72.7 possessions per 40 minutes. The Lobos didn’t allow over 70 points in five of its last six matchups, and if they lockdown against an inconsistent team in Clemson on Friday, I could see them going on a Cinderella run.
No. 10 Nevada:
Another Mountain West team, I know, but hear me out.
The Wolf Pack has a solid resume heading into the NCAA Tournament. They are ranked top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and went 3-1 against top-25 teams this season. Nevada is a veteran team, making its second straight appearance in the tournament, riding a 10-2 run heading into their matchup with Dayton.
Nevada runs a slow but efficient offense, averaging 66.6 possessions per 40 minutes but hitting 47.5% of its shots. Don’t expect a lot of points from them, but if the Wolf Pack can slow their opponents down and control the pace, I could see them winning a couple of games.
Matchups to watch
No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon:
Anyone who has talked about March Madness with me the last few days has heard my lock of the century: Grand Canyon is bouncing Saint Mary’s in the first round.
I can’t explain it too much, but when I saw this matchup on Selection Sunday, I just got a feeling that this had “upset” written all over it. Now that I have dug deeper and discovered that the Lopes won 29 games, including one against San Diego State in non-conference play, I’m more inclined to ride with them in this one.
I could be completely wrong on this one, but I’m a huge fan of the five-seed upsets in the first round, and I’m convinced this will be one.
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State:
Although they had a disastrous end to the regular season and a poor showing in the Big 10 Tournament, I think the Spartans are a team you can never count out. Making their 26th straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans haven’t lost in the first round since the 2015-16 season.
Michigan State is around the middle of the pack offensively, but its defense, which has held its opponents to under 66 points per game, makes up for that. Mississippi State plays at a pretty slow pace, 67.1 possessions per 40 minutes, and is top 20 in defensive efficiency, allowing 95.7 points per 100 possessions according to KenPom.
I see this as a run-for-run matchup with whichever team is playing better in the final five minutes advancing.
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Colgate:
I’ve seen Baylor play a couple of times this season, and honestly, it just depends on what team shows up Friday to determine if the team will move on. It’s hard to go against the Big 12 in this matchup, but I feel like the doubt is warranted.
Sure they have six players averaging over 10 points per game this season, but the Bears have had their fair share of cold nights or games turning into shootouts due to their lackluster defense.
Colgate may not look too impressive on paper, but the team is heading into the tournament on a 17-1 run, including a nearly 20-point win in the Patriot Conference championship game. If the Raiders take an early lead, I could see this slipping away from the Bears and suffering their first loss in the Round of 64 since 2016.
