Iowa farmers selling grain between now and March are facing uncertainty, as an outbreak of bird flu has caused prices to fluctuate.

Grain prices in the United States dropped, but have regained some stability since the outbreak of two separate strains of avian influenza virus in Asia and the eastern United States. Since it isn’t known when the outbreak will end, the market is facing uncertainty.

Markets for corn and soybeans have been volatile since the report of the outbreak in late January, said Robert Wisner, university professor of economics.

“In two days [after the report was issued], the market dropped 40 cents and is still volatile,” Wisner said. “But the markets have temporarily recovered.”

Fifty percent of U.S. corn exports and 57 percent of U.S. soybean exports are used in the areas of Asia where the avian influenza has been confirmed.

However, Wisner said, it is difficult to determine exactly how much U.S. grain is used to feed poultry.

Birds that become infected are destroyed, which creates a drop in demand for their feedstuffs, Wisner said.

Poultry eat soybean meal and corn. However, Wisner said, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports the number of birds that are destroyed is only a small percentage of the total bird population in Asia. Because of this, Wisner said, demand change reflected in the market may be a result of overreaction by grain traders. A positive point in the market situation is that poultry are raised quickly and can replace destroyed birds, helping the market to recover much more quickly, Wisner said.

Part of the market flux is attributed to the tight supply for corn and soybeans worldwide, Wisner said.

“When we end the market year [in August], ending stocks will be at the smallest percent of annual use in 40 years,” Wisner said.

With tight corn supplies, Wisner said, there will be larger increases in corn planting this spring.

“Traders have been reacting more to the uncertainty of when [the outbreak] will be under control,” he said.

Wisner predicts markets will become steady after March futures for corn and soybeans close at the end of this month.

“Farmers are somewhat nervous about the situation but are taking a ‘calm, wait and see’ approach,'” Wisner said. “I think this is not a time for panic selling.”

Darrell Trampel, professor of veterinary diagnostic and production animal medicine, said in an e-mail that most feed purchasing decisions are based on projected costs of feeds and not on the prospects of the avian influenza.

He said the most important issue facing poultry producers now is the projected shortage of soybeans for next summer.