Crash may hurt airlines, experts say

Rebecca Cooper

Experts are warning the crash of American Airlines Flight 587 could add to an already troubled airline industry, increasing the chance of bankruptcy of some smaller airlines and financial troubles for the airline and tourism industry.

On Friday, stocks in the airline industry had hit their high since Sept. 11. Stocks initially plummeted after the crash, but as word spread that it was more likely an accident than another terrorist attack, the stocks started to rebound.

“It’s premature to say if this reflects a problem with the airline or terrorism or pilot error,” said Peter Orazem, professor of economics. “Most of the recent airline crashes have been the result of pilot error and terrorism. If it proves to be a mechanical failure, the market won’t be affected as harshly.”

As the last bell rang for the market Monday, all of the major airlines – including the nation’s top three – experienced a decline. AMR Corp., which owns American Airlines, experienced a drop of $1.64 a share, to $16.49. UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines, fell $0.59 to $10.33. Delta Air Lines Inc. dropped $2.72 a share to $23.27.

While stock-market savvy Kris Kroona said he worries the market will be adversely affected by recent events, he is positive it will continue to rebound, as it began to do last Friday.

“I’m in it for the long run, so I’m not too worried about how today’s events will affect my investments,” said Kroona, sophomore in pre-business. “Basically it’s going to go down and it will be hard for a while, but as long as they try to minimize their loses, I’m confident that the economy will bounce back up.”

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the airline industry has cut about 100,000 out of 1.2 million jobs. Orazem said he fears if airlines continue to lay off people and investors continue to trade their stock in the airlines, the industry will have decreased safety.

A continuation of the current airline industry economic downfall could create more problems, he said. Airlines could lay off necessary personnel and buy fewer new planes, Orazem said.

“The Airbus has been widely used for 30 years now and has proven to be relatively safe,” he said. “Normally, engines don’t just fall off planes, but as equipment ages, things happen and problems that didn’t show up when the planes were new might start to. Something similar happened to the Concorde a couple years ago, and it’s ironic that this happened less then a week after [the Concorde] started to fly again.”

Concorde jets had flown for more than 20 years without a problem, but a year and a half ago, an Air France Concorde crashed outside of Paris just minutes after takeoff, killing all 113 aboard and grounding Concorde fleets worldwide.

But the overall market hasn’t dropped very much as a direct result, Orazem said.

“Airline crashes have occurred before, and virtually every major airline has had a crash,” he said. “So long as it’s a viable company, they’ll do okay. This was one airplane and seems to be an isolated event that won’t be too bad for the overall economy.”