After week of jostling, straw poll lineup set – maybe

Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) – After a week of jostling, Iowa Republicans appear to have a lineup for their high-profile straw poll later this summer, although there’s still enough time for more surprises as the event grows near.

Top GOP officials insist the event has lost little of its luster despite the decision of two high-profile candidates to take a pass on the event.

“When I look at this lineup, I am convinced they will build the largest gathering of Republicans ever,” said Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa.

The biggest wild card ahead of the event, which is scheduled for Aug. 11 in Ames, is the status of actor and former Sen. Fred Thompson.

Local officials have talked with Thompson, who has expressed interest in making the GOP race, about participating in the event, and his presence could change the dynamic.

The event, which traditionally serves as a dress rehearsal for January’s caucuses, took a major hit last week when former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain both announced plans to skip the straw poll. They were followed by former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.

Despite skipping the event, all three will have their names listed on the straw poll ballot.

A slew of other contenders, including Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo and Tommy Thompson and John Cox, have committed to competing.

Thompson has not made a decision about competing, and Laudner has left the door open for him to compete.

“Any other credible candidate will be considered when appropriate,” he said.

Though McCain and Giuliani are both considered top tier candidates, neither had assembled the sort of massive turnout operation that has proven effective in previous straw polls. Critics have posited that their decision to pull out was a move to cut losses in advance.

McCain has visited the state more often than Giuliani and has assembled an Iowa campaign organization, though not to the extent that Romney has assembled. Both

“(The straw poll) wasn’t helped by their withdrawal, but it wasn’t dealt that serious a blow,” said Republican strategist Bob Haus. “I don’t think either campaign was going to be able to deliver that many votes.”

In past election cycles, the event has helped to winnow larger fields of contenders. In 2000, for example, Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander and Gary Bauer all left the race after poor showings in a straw poll.

Then Gov. George W. Bush won the contest that year, and went on to win the Iowa caucuses.

Even without Giuliani and McCain, the straw poll could still squeeze several candidates from the race, said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University.

“I think in a way, the straw poll will be a battle among the second tier,” Goldford said.

Romney, the only remaining top-tier candidate expected to compete, has cultivated a massive turnout operation and is widely expected to prevail at the event. But Goldford said the event will still have an interesting dynamic.

“It leaves the interesting question as to whether any of the second-tier candidates can surge ahead,” said Goldford. “That’s vital to them because it is very hard to see where their money will come from if they don’t.”

And the event will still be a draw for a pack of GOP celebrities.

Wayne LaPierre, head of the National Rifle Association, is expected to attend, as is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Gingrich has not ruled out seeking the GOP nomination in his own right, but says he won’t make a decision before the fall.