Even using election models with a history of accurate results, the 2004 presidential election is going to be tough to call early, two distinguished political scientists said during an election forum held Thursday in Lush Auditorium.

The scientists — James Campbell, professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, and John Hibbing, professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln — differed on their opinions and their faith in the modern statistical methods of predicting elections.

Campbell, who was recently featured in the American Political Scientists Association’s national journal “PS” for his statistical model, said using the model is similar to watching skilled card players in poker. In his model, he said, a projected outcome would favor the re-election of President Bush.

“It’s like a card game; the fundamentals [of the model] are really the hand that’s dealt to the candidate,” he said.

Campbell’s model relies on three factors: public opinion, economic performance and the nature of the incumbent. These factors can indicate who is favored in an election, but they are not definite, he said.

One case where the model didn’t work with the result was in the 2000 election. Campbell said Gore was favored going into the election, but didn’t run an effective campaign; Bush won by a slim margin.

The same margin exists in this election, he said, with the model favoring the president’s re-election, with him capturing a predicted 52 to 55 percent of the popular vote.

One key to this model, he said, was public opinion. While the public is inundated with opinion polls from the moment a clear winner is revealed during the primary season, the polls only begin to matter around Labor Day, he said.

“Just knowing the polls alone gives us a pretty good clue,” he said.

Hibbing said modeling studies has become something of a “cottage industry” in the political science field. He said the models help isolate issues, but cannot perform well in taking into account many other external characteristics like the effectiveness of a candidate’s campaign or many of the other idiosyncrasies seen in the 2000 campaign.

“These models didn’t do very well at all,” he said.

Hibbing looked at the election as a whole, choosing to look at the interplay between the congressional elections as well as the presidential election.

One concern for him is the somewhat stagnant House races this year. Only 7 percent of this year’s 435 races are expected to be competitive.

“There’s not much movement in the House anymore,” he said. “I think that’s a problem for American politics.”

Divisions in the Congress could also prove to be problems for whoever gets elected this year, he said, as there is a possibility the Democrats could take back a majority in the House.

However, he said, since partisanship is at a high, vocal blocs in the House could provide a session full of filibusters.