President Donald Trump arrived at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center to undergo additional tests, after testing positive for COVID-19. It seems the lead up to the 2020 election will continue to be filled with uncertainty and all Americans can do now is wait.

“President Trump remains in good spirits, has mild symptoms and has been working throughout the day,” White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said in a statement according to the New York Times. “Out of an abundance of caution, and at the recommendation of his physician and medical experts, the president will be working from the presidential offices at Walter Reed for the next few days. President Trump appreciates the outpouring of support for both he and the First Lady.”

The announcement came late Thursday night that both Trump and First Lady Melania Trump were positive after an already eventful week for him after the release of his taxes and Tuesday’s debate. 

Trump announced he and the first lady would begin their quarantine process at this time; they are both well and will continue to remain in the White House.

Public Health and Politics

John Paschen, chair of the Story County Board of Health, said he hopes for full recovery to anyone who contracts COVID-19 and wishes it upon no one but COVID-19 should not be a political issue.

“I am really concerned that people in this administration, including many Republicans, have been going around all this time without a mask because they think it is a political issue, the president has always disdained masks,” Paschen said. 

Dirk Deam, a teaching professor in the political science department, said Paschen is right, making the pandemic a political issue has proven to be destructive.

“There is scientific evidence and scientific analysis and scientific expertise that tells you the way things are going, and you simply refuse to accept it and then ridicule the experts because they are presumably driven by some political motive opposite of yours,” Deam said. “That looks really foolish now.”

During Tuesday’s debate, Trump said he wears masks when he thinks it is needed and criticized Democratic nominee Joe Biden for his use of masks. Paschen said this emphasizes the importance of wearing face coverings to prevent the passage of COVID-19.

Prior to testing positive, the Trump campaigning tactics were not quite in line with social distancing standards, hosting rallies indoors with typically unmasked audiences. Paschen said there are some therapies for those who are very ill but there is still no treatment.  

“Who knows how many other people he has infected.” Paschen said. “He and his administration might be the cause of the second wave in this country and we just have to cross our fingers and wait.”

Going forward

Trump will likely quarantine 14 out of the 32 days leading up to the election. Deam said usually, candidates can’t even afford to get colds this close to the election, especially if they are behind. Mack Shelley, professor and chair of the political science department, said the Trump campaign could feel the strain of this.

“He can’t really go to these big, boisterous events where a lot of people don’t even try to wear masks or social distance,” Shelley said. “That is where he gets his energy from […] He’s good when he is riling up his base turnout sometimes by the, sometimes, 10 of thousands for these giant rallies and it provides for pretty good theatrics that plays well on TV.”

Shelley said this could make it difficult for Republicans to build support for their own base. Next in line if the president is unable to assume their duties would be the vice president under the 25th amendment, in this case, Mike Pence. 

“The reality I think from the Republican perspective, if I am reading this correctly, Trump is a mega-star but is really more like MAGA-star,” Shelley said. “He is the party. If he is out of commission and can’t do what he does pretty well to rev up support for the Republican base and his base, that kind of knocks the legs out from under Republican strategy to count on Trump to narrow the margins.”

Recent polls show Iowa could swing either way, the Des Moines Register reported Biden and Trump at a tie and other local polls differ within the margin of error. In the state elections Republicans have the trifecta of control in Iowa, but in 2018 Democrats chipped away at this by five seats in the house. 

The most recent U.S. Senate polls show Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield leading within the margins of error in a tight race against incumbent Joni Ernst. 

“If the top of the ticket goes down there would be all these cascading effects,” Shelley said. “You don’t want to advise someone to panic, but if any combination of things like this were to come to pass, it could produce a debacle for the Republicans.”

Deam said places where public officials have acted in concert with Trump to gain followers may begin to reverse after Trump’s positive COVID-19 result.

“One of the phenomena of the Trump presidency has been the fear of Republicans of doing anything that is contrary to Trump,” Deam said. “When Trump’s own policies seem to hurt him, manifestly objectively so, then it really puts them in a difficult bine.”

Trump appears to be showing mild symptoms, but the 1947 Presidential Succession Act and the shift of power is another factor to be considered. Going down the line of succession after Pence, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would assume office if Pence was unable to. Following Pelosi is President Pro Tempore of the Senate, Chuck Grassley.

The House and Senate are intended to be representative bodies, not political bodies. Deam said this is the problem of confusing political parties with the Constitutional law. National Security can become a concern when the commander in chief is not safe.

“The terrible concern is to make sure the president is safe and protected because if that isn’t the case then the United States immediately appears to be vulnerable,” Deam said.

The U.S. currently has over 7.3 million positive cases of COVID-19 and over 208,000 deaths from the virus which is continuing to be a threat to the country. 

“As horrible as this is personally and for the country, it is also in some respect, a refreshing reminder that there is a reality out there and you can’t mask that over political desperation,” Deam said. “You have to believe in the world for what it actually is, and if that causes us to begin to do that then maybe we will all be better off. It is just a fact that the United States is handling this more poorly than any other county and we know fully well that we could have done better, maybe now we will start doing that. For all the bad things that have happened, maybe that is the silver lining to this.”