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Gridiron Staff Picks: Iowa State vs. Baylor

Chase+Contreraz+recieves+a+toss+from+Tyler+Perkins+to+get+the+first+down+on+a+fake+field+goal+against+Cincinnati+at+Nippert+Stadium+in+Cincinnati+on+Oct.+14%2C+2023.
Tyler Coe
Chase Contreraz recieves a toss from Tyler Perkins to get the first down on a fake field goal against Cincinnati at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Oct. 14, 2023.

Christian Royston, Sports Editor (3-4)

Iowa State 35, Baylor 17

The Cyclones are in the best position possible to take down Baylor on the road for what feels like the first time in forever. Iowa State got over its biggest roadblock by taking down Cincinnati in dominant fashion. Before the matchup, Iowa State had not won on the road against a Big 12 opponent in two years.

Now coming off a bye week fresh and with all the momentum, the Cyclones have a solid chance to take down Baylor on the road. Baylor is a team that has struggled throughout the season, especially at home.

Baylor’s only win at home came against Long Island, who is 2-6, which was also its biggest win. Two of Baylor’s two losses at home came to ranked opponents, in Utah and Texas, but the other two were not as flattering. Baylor lost its season and home opener to Texas State by 11 points and more recently got blown out at home by Texas Tech.

Baylor also barely squeaked out wins against two of the lower teams in the Big 12. The Bears had to pull off the biggest comeback in program history to take down UCF, while only beating Cincinnati by a field goal. Iowa State beat Cincinnati in the same environment by 20 points.

The Bears have struggled on defense in recent weeks, allowing 141 points in Big 12 play, with an average of over 35 points allowed per game. The Cyclones offense has clicked every week of conference play, so there is no reason to believe it will struggle against Baylor.

On the other hand, Baylor’s offense has sputtered against good defenses. With Iowa State boasting an elite all-around defense, the Bears will be in for a long day.

Logan Shanks, Assistant Sports Editor (5-2)

Iowa State 24, Baylor 13

Iowa State is searching for its second-straight win on the road, and although they haven’t had much luck down in Waco, Texas, in the last few years, Baylor has won just one game at home in its five tries this season. I think the course will stay the same and the Cyclones will secure their fourth conference win this season, and keep their momentum rolling after the bye week.

While on paper these two teams seem very similar offensively with each averaging a little over five yards per play, the difference is in the defenses. The Bears have allowed over 25 points in five of their seven games this season compared to the Cyclones who have given up that amount of points just twice. 

Baylor has also allowed the third most touchdowns against conference opponents (19) while the Cyclones have given up just 12 in the same amount of games. The Bears have also consistently struggled down-to-down on defense as they have allowed the most yards per play against conference opponents (6.8). 

The Cyclones’ offense has taken leaps every game, and I think their growth doesn’t stop on the road. While not particularly the best part of the offense, the run game has a big opportunity to make an impact in this game as the Bears have allowed the third-most rushing yards against Big 12 opponents. 

Iowa State has lived off of its defense making stops and creating opportunities for the offense and making their jobs easier. While it may take a while for the Cyclone offense, which usually gets off to a slow start, I think they will put together enough scoring drives late to put the game away and hand Baylor its fifth loss at home.

Pavle Markovic, Sports Reporter (6-1)

Iowa State 31, Baylor 20

Going to Waco has not been ideal for the Cyclones in the past, as they’ve lost their previous two road matchups against the Bears. Iowa State’s record on the road has not been ideal, as the team continuously kept falling short in games that were not being played in Ames. Now following a road win over the new Big 12 school in Cincinnati, Iowa State will look to keep its win streak alive on Saturday.

Baylor’s defense seemed to struggle to keep opposing offenses under 30 points throughout the majority of the season, which is a major problem for the Bears when it comes to winning games. This could be an advantage that Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht and the Cyclone offense uses on Saturday to get out in front of the Bears early on, as they’ve found recent success in driving down the field.

Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense has been up and down in terms of scoring high points in games this season. They’ve shown that they can keep games competitive and score 20 or more points a game while other times they just get shut down. The Cyclones’ defense has done a great job of holding opposing offenses to under 30 points a game this season, and they should look to replicate this on Saturday.

I think this game will be competitive overall as it is Big 12 conference play that always ends up being closer than it should be. So with that being said, I have the Cyclones extending their win streak to three games, with two straight on the road, to bring them to within one game of a potential bowl appearance.

Tyler Coe, Photojournalist

Iowa State 27, Baylor 19

Coming off the bye week, I expect the Iowa State offense to come out of the gates slowly. Baylor will play its homecoming game with momentum after beating Cincinnati on the road, which was its second road win in a row. Despite the Baylor defense sitting towards the bottom of the Big 12, it will give Iowa State fits early. But, the offense will open up, and the defense will keep Iowa State in the game early.

There was a lot to like about the Cincinnati game: a big performance from Jayden Higgins, Rocco Becht finding Benjamin Brahmer and Stevo Klotz for a pair of touchdowns, Chase Contreraz’s perfect day and the defense forcing turnovers with T.J. Tampa and Jeremiah Cooper each with an interception.

So far, Baylor has underperformed this season, sitting at a 3-4 record with poor losses to Texas State, Texas and Texas Tech. In just four games this year, Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen has racked up 1,236 passing yards, only failing to reach 300 yards in just one game. Shapen has also shown the ability to find the endzone, racking up five passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Shapen also has yet to turn the ball over.

However, the Baylor defense gives up nearly 400 yards a game; with that, Becht and the Iowa State offense will have a strong second half, and the defense will force Shapen to commit his first turnover of the year. I predict Iowa State to win in Waco, Texas, for the first time since 2017.

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