AMES – How about that? Iowa State is two wins away from its first 10-win season ever. The Cyclones are also two wins and some outside help away from the Big 12 Championship game.
There seems to be a clear path.
I feel like the talk about the chance of a 10-win season has gotten a bit repetitive, but it is still needed to make the Big 12 title game. There are two scenarios where Iowa State makes it to the Big 12 Championship.
Utah is up next on the schedule and to be honest, they just aren’t good.
For a team and a fanbase that has talked a lot – and I mean a lot – before the season started and how much they didn’t even want to be in the Big 12, they sure haven’t done a lot.
Seventh-year quarterback Cameron Rising is out with an injury for what feels like the millionth time in his career, and the Utes are actually on their third-string quarterback in freshman Isaac Wilson, the brother of former BYU and current Denver Broncos third-string quarterback Zach Wilson.
Nonetheless, Utah is 4-6 overall and 15th in the Big 12. I don’t see Iowa State losing to a team that has even more injuries than the Cyclones do.
That’s nine wins after Utah, and the 10th could come against a struggling Kansas State team or in the bowl game.
Kansas State has been on a bit of a dip recently, having lost its past two games. One of those was at Houston – ouch – and the other was to Arizona State, a team that has been on the rise and could actually sneak into the Big 12 Championship game.
Given that the Cyclones beat the Wildcats last season and seem to have their mojo back after a big win over Cincinnati, I wouldn’t be shocked if Iowa State finishes 10-2 and on a three-game win streak entering bowl season.
But is it enough to make Arlington? Almost.
The first step for Iowa State to make the Big 12 Championship is clear: beat Utah and Kansas State. After that, reliance on other teams is needed.
Currently, BYU and Colorado sit atop the Big 12 standings, each with a 6-1 record. Behind them are Iowa State and Arizona State at 5-2.
Arizona State holds the tiebreaker over the Cyclones right now, but if Iowa State beats Kansas State, and it needs to anyway, the Cyclones take the tiebreaker.
There are two ways Iowa State can make the Big 12 Championship. One is definitely more obtainable and easier to understand.
Here’s path one:
For Iowa State to jump past BYU or Colorado, those schools would need to lose just one of their final two games. BYU plays Arizona State and Houston, while Colorado faces Kansas and Oklahoma State.
If there was a week for both the Cougars and Buffaloes to lose, this is it. Arizona State is on a roll, and Kansas just knocked off Iowa State and BYU in its past two games.
If not, then an upset will need to happen.
That’s the easiest, most sensible path for the Cyclones to make it.
Now path two:
This is the hard way for Iowa State to get in: the Cyclones can lose to Utah but cannot lose to Kansas State. Crazy, right?
A loss to Kansas State means a loss in the tie-breaker to the Sun Devils, which means Iowa State is eliminated just like that. But a Utah loss still keeps the Cyclones alive.
It does get a little more muddled if that happens, considering Arizona State and BYU do play one another, but if Iowa State does, in fact, lose to Utah, the Cyclones would benefit greater from a Sun Devil loss.
If that happens, it won’t matter if Arizona State wins or loses against Arizona in the final week because Iowa State would hold the tiebreaker with the Kansas State win.
The Cyclones would just need Colorado to lose twice if BYU beats Arizona State should Iowa State fall to Utah.
If Arizona State beats BYU, it would be easiest for the Cyclones if both BYU and Arizona State lose in the final week. Then, it’s Iowa State and Colorado in the title game if the Buffaloes win out or lose once.
Confusing, I know.
In short, for scenario two, the Cyclones can only lose to Utah. A loss to Kansas State eliminates the Cyclones. But a loss to Utah means that BYU, Colorado and Arizona State need to lose out to finish the season.
Now, do I think Iowa State will make it to Arlington? Yes, I do.
I have the Cyclones finishing the job, beating Utah and Kansas State and securing the first 10-win season in school history.
As to whether BYU or Colorado loses a game, I believe one will lose this week, but I am unsure which one. Again, BYU faces a red-hot Arizona State team, and Colorado plays Kansas, a team that has been rolling past ranked opponents in recent weeks.
Things looked grim a week ago, but like I said, the Cincinnati game was the most important and I still believe that to be true.
The Cyclones are out of their funk and got a win. Now, everything is in front of them. These scenarios wouldn’t even exist right now had Iowa State lost Saturday.
But they do, and the Cyclones can still achieve two things never done before in Ames: a 10-win season and claiming a Big 12 Championship.
