The National Weather Service (NWS) indefinitely paused the launching of weather balloons on March 20 from its offices in Omaha, Nebraska and Rapid City, South Dakota, which some experts say could lead to a shift in forecasting accuracy for Ames and central Iowa.

During standard operation, the NWS simultaneously launches weather balloons twice daily from 92 locations throughout North America and the Pacific Islands, according to their website. 

The NWS states that weather balloons “remain the best platform for observing temperature, wind, relative humidity and pressure above the ground,” collecting critical atmospheric data via radiosondes to improve weather models and forecasts.

“The weather balloon that gives us the most important information for Iowa is Omaha,” Bill Gallus, professor of meteorology, said. “It’s the closest to many of us in Iowa. It’s to our west, and weather typically comes in from the west… If there’s no Omaha weather balloon, there’s a big hole… We have to go clear out to the Rockies to find the next one.”

While weather balloons provide the best data for forecasting, in their absence, satellites remain crucial.

“If we didn’t have satellites, this would be a massive crisis,” Gallus said. “The problem is, satellites are looking down onto the earth from far, far away. They can’t tell us in detail what is happening with the changes in temperature and moisture.”

According to Gallus, while weather balloons can provide data points every 100 feet or less, satellites may provide as sparse as one data point per half mile.

Weather balloons are also far cheaper to operate than satellites, according to Gallus. Weather balloons cost roughly $200 per launch, according to the NWS (totaling $36,800 twice daily across all locations), whereas satellites represent an investment of over $1 billion.

“Commercial aircraft sometimes have weather instruments attached, so as they’re taking off or landing, it gives us a little bit of data,” Gallus said. “We use everything we can get our hands on. It’s just that weather balloons are a very good source of information that tells us what’s happening throughout the entire atmosphere.”

Gallus also notes that while airports house weather stations, they provide limited data as well.

“The atmosphere is like a giant aquarium, and it would be like we’re only getting data on the floor, the bottom of the aquarium,” Gallus said.

This suspension of weather balloon launches also has the potential to impact severe weather forecasting. 

According to a press release by the NWS, the office will “perform special observations as needed.” Gallus believes this signals that launches would still occur if severe weather is knowingly on the horizon.

“The problem is, there are days where we get severe weather in Iowa where we’re a little bit surprised,” Gallus said. “And so if we’re not thinking it looks that favorable, chances are we won’t ask for a special balloon launch… If thunderstorms do blow up, we’re kind of left a little bit in the dark.”

According to the press release from the NWS, the reason for the suspension of launches is due to a lack of staffing.

Gallus said that high retirement rates and a lack of hiring and ongoing government efficiency actions have led to this shortage of manpower.

“Some [NWS] offices have dropped down to roughly half of the employees that they really need to do all the jobs they’re supposed to do,” Gallus said. “Omaha is one of those offices.”

This issue is compounded by recent human resources actions, which have included placing probationary employees – employees hired within the last year – on administrative leave, as well as incentivizing early retirements by monetary means.

Beyond the two locations that have halted launches completely, several others have also reduced their launch quantities. 

“We’re not losing just Omaha,” Gallus said. “It’s kind of this whole area to the west of Iowa, which is really unfortunate.”

Gallus referred to this series of suspensions and reduction of launches as a “very interesting experiment,” comparing it to spinning a roulette wheel.

“You could have a weather event happen, where the data that we really needed to give us a clue what was happening is right in that region where the weather balloons have stopped,” Gallus said. “It could be that you get one event this year or next year, where it will actually have a really big impact.”

Gallus further noted that while the forecast data will certainly be worse, the extent is not yet known.

“The big question we don’t know is the decline in quality,” Gallus said. “Will it be enough that the average person will notice?”