Good Cop: Nick Mensen
Both the Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa Hawkeyes come into the annual Cy-Hawk game undefeated once again. This year, Iowa State fans do not come in with the same offensive concerns as last year.
Last year’s week one scores of these two teams had Cyclone fans concerned about their offensive capabilities. The Cyclones did just enough to sneak past Iowa, using a much-needed offensive surge in the second half, capped by a 54-yard game-winning field goal from junior kicker Kyle Konrardy. Now, the Cyclones are looking to beat Iowa for the first time at Jack Trice Stadium since 2011.
Despite having previous experience at South Dakota State, senior Hawkeye quarterback Mark Gronowski only had 44 passing yards, was 8 for 15 on completed passes and only had one passing touchdown. Gronowski’s final quarterback rating was 24.4.
Gronowski ran the ball more frequently than previous Iowa quarterbacks, rushing the ball 11 times and averaging 3.5 yards per carry. The Cyclones’ defense limited Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson to 2.5 when they squared off in Dublin.
In the run game, the Hawkeyes led primarily on Xavier Williams and Terrell Washington Jr. against Albany, as they combined for 191 of Iowa’s 310 rushing yards. Iowa State’s run defense limited Kansas State to 110 rushing yards.
Iowa State has won two of the last three matchups against the Hawkeyes, but hasn’t won a home game against them since 2011. The Cyclones also haven’t beaten Iowa by more than one possession since 2005, when they won 23-3 in Ames.
With how close recent matchups have been, it is more likely than not it will come down to the special teams. After Konrardy made his 63-yard field goal in week one, Iowa State appears to have the edge if it comes down to a last-second field goal.
Score Prediction: No.16 Iowa State 24, Iowa 21
Bad Cop: Zander White
Let’s get one thing straight: I’m not here to make friends with what I’m about to say.
There’s no doubt that Iowa State has come up over the last few seasons. The Cyclones saw their first 11-win season in 2024, which ended with one of the program’s biggest bowl victories in recent history over Cam Ward and the Miami Hurricanes.
The flip side, however, is that this isn’t a Miami team with its star quarterback on the sidelines; it’s Kirk Ferentz and Iowa, a team that’s had Matt Campbell’s number since he took over in 2016.
Against the Hawkeyes, Campbell is a meager 2-6. The Cyclones haven’t won a game at home against Iowa since 2011 under retired head coach Paul Rhoads.
Iowa State’s last win might have come in 2024 inside of Kinnick Stadium, but it had its moments. Cyclone kicker Kyle Konrardy’s 54-yard field goal might have been miraculous, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that he missed from 41 yards earlier in the game.
Should the game feature wet conditions, a repeat of last season’s loss to Texas Tech, in which Konrardy missed from 51 yards out, is likely.
Funny enough, the last five games have seen the road team come away with the victory, four of which were by single digits, except for Iowa’s 27-17 victory in 2021. Dropped passes, overthrown receivers, fumbles in the red zone: you name it, this game will probably have it.
Redshirt junior quarterback Rocco Becht and the Cyclone offense struggled to gain momentum in the first matchup of last season’s “miracle,” going three-and-out on the first three drives and scoreless in the first half. Even with the home crowd, expect nothing less.
Deep passes? Forget about them. Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker is known for playing “Cover 8” and pushing safeties further down the field.
That said, if you’re a fan of the deep ball, sleep in and sell your tickets. Explosive plays are limited with deep passes against the Iowa defense being few and far between, if any at all.
If Campbell wants his first home win against the Hawkeyes, it’s going to take more than just good luck and a last-second kick.
Score Prediction: Iowa 20, No. 16 Iowa State 13
