Gridiron editor announces his preseason picks
August 31, 2006
The college football season is upon us again and that means it’s time for some preseason predictions.
The Big 12 outlook is a little more cloudy this year than it was at the same time last year, with some shakeups in the South and – at least – a two-team slugfest set to unfold on the North side. Without further ado, here are the picks:
The North
Quarterback Zac Taylor has had plenty of time to figure out coach Bill Callahan’s West Coast offense, and the defense got better as the year went on last season. It’s put-up or shut-up time for the Huskers, and although they aren’t as secure a lock for the Big 12 Championship game as their fans like to think, they are the favorite.
Key Game: at Iowa State, Oct. 7
The Cyclones return one of the most experienced and potent offenses in the conference led by quarterback Bret Meyer and standout receivers Todd Blythe and Austin Flynn. Stevie Hicks also returns at running back, but the Cyclones have just enough questions in the secondary, as well as some questions on the defensive line compounded by injuries, to keep them from being the favorites in the division. Beating Nebraska in Ames may change that, however.
Key Game: Nebraska, Oct. 7
Colorado’s season ended with a horrific crash against Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 Championship game, but Gary Barnett is out and the dark cloud over the program will begin to lift. The excitement from new coach Dan Hawkins, coupled with a solid defense, means the Buffs will exceed expectations and could win as many as seven games.
Key Game: Iowa State, Nov. 11
Missouri returns 17 starters from 2005, but they’ve finally run out of eligibility for Brad Smith without ever winning the Big 12 North. How does this happen? Quarterback Chase Daniel, who impressed at times in spot duty last year, takes over the offense, but a nasty conference road schedule (Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Iowa State) dooms the Tigers to seven wins if they can’t run the table at home.
Key Game: Colorado, Sept. 30
The Jayhawks have been a program trying to break out of the cellar the past couple seasons and another bowl appearance last year shows Mark Mangino has the program going in the right direction. However, defense was the Jayhawks’ strength last year and this year they are without their three leading tacklers from 2005 and just about everyone else. Look for Kansas to slip back to around five wins. Without a perfect non-conference run, a bowl game is out of the question.
Key Game: at Toledo, Sept. 16
A young, inexperienced coaching staff takes over a team in Manhattan that struggled mightily last year and will do the same this year. This will be a tough year for first-year coach Ron Price as victories will be scarce. Finale against rival Kansas will be a huge momentum builder.
Key Game: at Kansas, Nov. 18
The South
Controversy in Oklahoma, the loss of Vince Young in Texas and a great receiving corps, even by Tech’s video-game standards, means it’s now-or-never time for the Red Raiders. The top dogs in the South have left the door slightly open for Tech to make its first trip to the Big 12 title game, plus it gets its top competition, Texas, in Lubbock.
Key Game: Texas, Oct. 28
The defending national champions have a great chance to repeat as Big 12 champions, but trying to replace Vince Young is a lot harder than you think. Don’t get me wrong, the ‘Horns will still be very good, maybe even great by the end of the year, but their toughest games (Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Nebraska) are all away from home.
Key Game: at Texas Tech, Oct. 28
The Sooners were supposed to be national championship contenders this year; $18,000 later, well, things aren’t as rosy. Quarterback Rhett Bomar is gone, and quarterback-turned-wide receiver-turned-quarterback Paul Thompson is in. Adrian Petersen is still there at running back, but the reappearance of Thompson under center takes this team from special to just above average. Look for a second-straight 8-4 finish.
Key game: Texas, Oct. 7
The Aggie program has had a turbulent year and a half ever since getting smoked in the 2004 Cotton Bowl by Tennessee. Now, the team is switching defensive schemes and is without quarterback Reggie McNeal. Without anyone scheduled in the non-conference, if A&M can’t manage at least seven wins, not only could it slip behind Baylor, but coach Dennis Franchione may be headed out the door. Final three games: Oklahoma, Nebraska and at Texas. Ouch.
Key Game: Oklahoma, Nov. 4
The Bears took significant steps forward last year under head coach Guy Morriss going 5-6 and narrowly missing a bowl game. Baylor picked up its first conference road win after 10 years in the Big 12 against Iowa State last year, and two weeks later nearly knocked off Oklahoma on the road, falling in double-overtime. The schedule favors Baylor enough that the Bears could pick up six wins and go bowling.
Key Game: TCU, Sept. 2
The Cowboys are nearly a lock to be 4-0 at the start of Big 12 play, but Mike Gundy’s crew doesn’t appear to be much better than it was last year. To make six wins and make a run at a bowl game, the ‘Boys will have to win at either Kansas or Kansas State AND beat Baylor at home before ending with at Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Otherwise, it will be another bowl season on the couch.
Key Game: Baylor, Nov. 11
Big 12 Championship: Texas Tech over Nebraska
Also in Gridiron:
